SaaSletter - 2024 SaaS Forecasts

Made with data from Pavilion's SaaS executive network

2024 SaaS Forecasts via Pavilion Survey Data

NEW: Working with Jon Russo (Founder of B2B Fusion; formerly SVP Marketing at Return Path (acquired), VP Marketing at iPass (NASDAQ: IPAS)) …

and Pavilion (10,000 member SaaS executive community) data from their November 2023 member survey …

We analyzed 2024 SaaS forecasts for the $1m-$300m ARR cohort (n=88):

The key theme from 2024 planning + forecasts = slowing growth above $30m ARR

This slide better captures how the $30m+ ARR cohort is moving further below their 25% growth “Mendoza Line” (my view of a minimum growth rate to be an investable, *growth* SaaS):

For the next slides, here are clarifying definitions of “acceleration” and “deceleration” with examples:

Company A: 2023 growth: 22%, 2024e growth: 37% = acceleration of 15%

Company B: 2023 growth: 21%, 2024e growth: 14% = deceleration of 7%

Here are the 2024e forecasts relative to 2023:

The above $30m+ ARR cohort is decelerating by 3% in 2024…

while smaller SaaS are accelerating (+4% for $1m-$10m, +8% for $10m-$30m).

The inspiration for cutting Pavilion’s data was to “sanity check” 2024e planning forecasts. The good news = when using quota attainment, the forecasts look rational:

Framing the quota attainment, RepVue data has been in the ~40% range throughout 2023.

The high achievers (50%+) are all showing acceleration, with the true outperformers 76+ accelerating by +10%-13%.

Importantly, the low achievers are only showing small (0%-3%) acceleration, a possible sign that they are not irrationally hopeful.

Special thanks to Brian Parks from

Bigfoot Capital

for helpful feedback on an early draft of our work.

November 2023 Repvue Quota Attainment

On balance, November was a weak month with more seller roles down than up:

Large images in my Repvue Twitter thread

Insight Partners “2023 Post-Sales Report”

Their 148 slides on customer success and expansion were excellent. My full Insight Report excerpts threaded here.

Notable slides - NPS by ARR:

Gross and net retention data:

and a TON of granular operating benchmarks - like customers / CS rep, org design + staffing ratios, time to expansion, etc. - throughout their report.

Curated Content

2023 sales cycles by ACV benchmarks from RepVue. With my own cut of their data →takeaway: highlights the efficiency of Enterprise deals despite slow sales cycles

Lastly, our “SaaS GPT Lab” continues to grow - check it out here (if you have a ChatGPT Plus account):