As a dutiful reader of these benchmarks, even back to the Pacific Crest Securities days (h/t David Spitz + co) in 2009, I wanted to get a note out on the just-released 2026 report:
2026 SaaS Benchmarks From KeyBanc Capital Markets
The full 2026 “AI x Software Benchmark” KBCM report (71 slides) is available here (email required).
Caveat: the 2026 report sample was n=81 (and often lower depending on question/topic).
2026 KBCM Benchmarks: High Forecasts = Risk?
Key takeaways: Sample participants are forecasting meaningful acceleration for 2027e.
Since the survey was “fielded July through September 2026” and given the business model, the 2026e estimates should be on target.
AI should help 2027e: note that ~21% of the KBCM respondents have AI as their “Core Product” … with nearly all non-Natives embedding or developing AI into their existing core SaaS offerings.
Nonetheless, we will lay out how 2027e frames versus historicals:
Achieving 2027e would be the largest step-up in our aggregation of this series.
We have repeatedly covered the surprisingly poor state of software forecasting. Especially relative to Dave Kellogg’s reasonable “90% Confidence / Miss Every 2.5 Years” standard.
With these missed forecasts having real economic consequences - see our Cloud Ratings Alto Model case study on the Zendesk take private, with $6.8 billion of lost equity value due to missed forecasts during the sale process (VIDEO | SLIDES):
… and human consequences - for the post-COVID peak, software vendors aggressively grew GTM teams… despite very clear signals of waning demand → overhiring leads to brutal layoffs:
Recommendation: Fullcast Revenue Insights as a Service (RIaaS)
As an Analyst firm, we avoid commercial partnerships with software vendors.
However, given our a) experience as private equity investors ourselves, b) recognizing the economic/human costs of misses, c) our recognition of how scaled data can truly outperform low-sample, effectively “gut” human forecast management, d) multi-year relationship with Guy Rubin, and e) our product due diligence (we had a sales leader at a $10bn+ publicly traded company evaluate RIaaS reports = their feedback = “This is the same as what we are having a big RevOps hire from AWS do… and he needs a team of 10 for this reporting level.”)…
Cloud Ratings is working with Fullcast to connect with software private equity investment firms to grow their Revenue Insights as a Service (RIaaS) offering:
PE Sponsor Validation: One of the largest software PE firms is deploying RIaaS across multiple portfolio companies
How: In ~1 hour of set-up, syncs to your portco’s CRM / email / call recordings → that scaled data is transformed by decade+ predictive sales algorithms (developed by Ebsta = founded in 2012, acquired by Fullcast in 2025)
Here is an interactive, ungated example RIaaS report:
Alternatively, email me or book a call to get my perspective on the RIaaS product for your portcos.
2026 KBCM Benchmarks: AI Excerpts
The gross dollar retention at 89% for “AI = Core Product” is encouraging relative to fears that AI Natives would experience fast growth + fast churn.
An interesting rule of thumb: AI generates a 20% price premium over core SaaS:
