SaaSletter - Marketing Takes The Blame
Our Analysis of 227 Forecast Results Via Pavilion Data
Forecast Attainment Reasons - via Pavilion Pulse Reports
Building on last week’s record traffic generating “Less Horrible Forecasts” note:
… we analyzed and categorized n=227 qualitative quotes and comments on forecast attainment in three recent Pavilion Pulse Reports (ex. = Q4 2024 Pulse Report).
The swing variables between misses and beats:
Pipeline & Deal Flow: Takes the blame as #1 cited for Below Forecast (34%)… while only receiving 16% credit for Above Forecast performance
Sales Execution & Performance: Basically the inverse: cited as #1 driver for beats (34%) but only 19% for misses
In plain English, marketing takes the blame for losses.
Forecast Attainment Quotes - via Pavilion Pulse Reports
From the Pavilion Pulse Report series sample size of n=227 forecasts, here are some notable quotes by Reason Category with an emphasis on misses:
Forecasts Themselves:
These quotes are particularly damning regarding the poor state of forecasting:
"Business plan was unrealistic, top-down model too aggressive (60% YoY growth), bottoms-up model had errors and unrealistic assumptions, founders wouldn't listen to feedback, Q2 and Q3 were a car crash"
"Top-down 2024 targets were unattainable"
"Target was set by CEO with no basis in reality. It was a wish not a target."
Pipeline & Deal Flow:
"Missed our TOF (top-of-funnel) discovery targets - getting harder and harder to schedule demos via outbound."
"Lack of qualified pipeline, departure of AEs"
"SDR pipe down"
Sales Execution & Performance:
"Lower conversion rates caused by sales mishires and market conditions."
"Lack of proper discovery, friction at hand off."
"New sales motion being tested."
"Shifts in marketing strategy, decreased sales conversion rates."
"Found out about competitors and other blockers too late in the deal cycle. Would have benefitted from more pipeline too"
Other Notable Quotes:
"Clarity of messaging in a crowded space"
“Solution becoming commoditized."
"Difficult to convert prospects: they are more careful and reluctant to buy software solutions"
“Business depends on small number of very large deals. One slipped, one lost and we missed big."
Norwest “2024 B2B Sales & Marketing Benchmark Report”
Some quick highlights from Renée Cohen and Norwest Venture Partners’ benchmarking report (n=195 companies)
On the theme of forecasts, VC-backed revise downward far more than PE-backed. Sub $25m ARR revise down far more than >$50m ARR companies:
A great look at the higher quotas per seller trend:
As always, go read the full report → lots of coverage across topics like "marketing mix: people vs programs, sales cycles, sales methodologies, GTM org charts and more.
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A tale as old as time. Marketing gets the blame for the failures and sales the credit for success. It’s kind of the default state. That’s why CEOs, CROs, and CMOs need to really understand their business and the realty of delas. You can’t just survey sales on beat/miss reasons.
Great insights!